Black Swan Event

Have you ever had one of “Those Days?”

You know those days when out of the blue, an event happened that upset and changed your whole world.

This “event” was totally unexpected, unplanned, unforeseen, and indeed an unpredictable event at that.

If you think about it, isn’t that much like this Covid19 virus that has brought the world to its knees? I have lived for several decades, and I have never seen anything to match this. Yes, I have heard of plagues such as the Black Plague, Chicken Pox, and Polio, etc.

Investopia at https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/blackswan.asp offers some insight:

  • A black swan is an extremely rare event with severe consequences. It cannot be predicted beforehand, though many claim it should be predictable after the fact.
  • Black swan events can cause catastrophic damage to an economy, and because they cannot be predicted, can only be prepared for by building robust systems.
  • Reliance on standard forecasting tools can both fail to predict and potentially increase vulnerability to black swans by propagating risk and offering false security.

What are some of the “Black Swan Events” humanity has endured?

  • The housing and financial crash in 2008 is probably one of the most recent in history (other than the 2020 Covid19 pandemic)
  • The hyperinflation in Zimbabwe in 2008, at 79.6 Billion percent, can ruin a country and is almost impossible to predict.
  • The “dot-com bubble” in 2001, when it busted, was much like the financial crash in 2008. Companies folded, with the losses passed on to investors.
  • The ripple effect of the default of the Russian Government debt default in 1998 caused the demise of Long-Term Capital Management’s hedge fund.

Realizing this “Black Swan Event” has had catastrophic impacts on lives, countries, and economies the world over. How do businesses recover?

The sad and bitter truth is that some businesses will never recover. They have taken an economic blow, which they are finding too hard to overcome.

Depending on where you live in this world, your country may have been more impacted than another country. And sometimes, it is hard to understand as human nature is to judge by our circumstances.

The Philippines were among the countries impacted the hardest. They have fewer resources to deal with this type of emergency, and this forced their government to impose stricter lock-downs and quarantines to try to control the spread of Covid19.

This “Black Swan Event” and losing his first cousin and company attorney have sorely affected Compumatrix. To the credit of Henry James, Founder of Compumatrix, he has taken some very bitter lemons and is creating a delightful lemonade.

One of the most important aspects of a “Black Swan Event” is that it has a historical impact for generations to come will be referred to and talked about the world over.

Because of the grit, conviction, and self-confidence of some brilliant young developers, they are working tirelessly under sometimes impossible circumstances. And with the guidance of the founder, Henry James Banayat, and the launching of the “New Normal,” the new updated Compumatrix CDAP, replacing the old 2.0 version – Compumatrix will Succeed!

Stay tuned as Compumatrix prepares to launch.

About the author

Gail holds one of the most challenging role in the Compumatrix Leadership: Membership. She ensures that that members and potential members enjoy the benefits of being part of the Compumatrix community.

Comments

  1. I was very little when hurricane Katrina happened in Louisiana, but I remember my parents talking about that “Black Swan Event” quite often as a child. Our family had to relocate for a while to Texas, friends of ours lost their jobs, and our house was flooded with six feet of water and the roof was ripped off. It took some time and we had to recover, but our family became stronger because of this “Black Swan Event”. We persevered and came out victorious! Compumatrix continues to persevere and will come out victorious despite Covid-19 and all the other setbacks it has faced!

    1. Thank you mrn520 for sharing your childhood experience of your family during the Katrina Black Swan Event. Your positive take away from that horrible life altering experience is a testimony to the strength of character that your parents obviously instilled in you. Your comparison of that to Compumatrix during this current Black Swan Event is insightful and right on point.

  2. Yes, mrn520, we have had many setbacks that to some seem impossible. My mother-in-law use to have a favorite saying, “what don’t kill will fatten”..lol This was her way of saying no matter what comes against you, you CAN overcome and learn and grow from it. I believe as a nation and indeed as a planet we can choose to learn and grow from this as well.

  3. Thank you for taking the time out of your day to reply back to me sophye! It really means a lot to me since I am quite new to the company. I too believe that instead of focusing on the negative events going on in the world right now, we, as a nation, should try to focus on the positives and learn so we can be better prepared for the future. Also, great saying by your mother-in-law – I will have to use that in the future!

  4. Black swans symbolise negativity. Humanity has gone through many catastrophies and as of now, Covid-19 is creating havoc, worldwide. But, every cloud has a silver lining and we are so fortunate to be blessed by a group of people who work so hard and care for us.Good days are coming -lets keep our faith strong and be optimistic.

  5. What doesn’t kill you, makes you stronger. Every obstacle, every wrong turn, every bad day; we learn to get up shake off the dust an start anew.
    Compumatrix have seen more than one Black swan and have grown not to be a weak unsecure company, but a strong worldwide incorporated company that will engage, enhance and enrich lives now and future generations

  6. My confidence in the pending success of Compumatrix is boosted by the realization that this current Black Swan Event of the Covid-19 Pandemic has NOT STOPPED our progress. As I update members in my group I always make sure that this a point I continue to make, which is that many businesses have been driven out of business, literally forced to close their doors, and yet Compumatrix is still here!

    As we go forward and OPEN our doors it will be magnificent! Have faith and get ready because there are many details that members should be tending to in order to be properly prepared for what is about to unfold.

  7. as you live through life many will go through black swan events and make the best of each situation and some will rise to prominence because of their fortitude and honor and it amazes me when I study thru history about some of those individuals and it helped develop my own way of seeing the world and its events — it is amazing and a great read —

  8. Thank you for this article, Gail! I think it comes in very needed time. Most of us were impacted in some way due to this unpredict pandemic and businesses all around the world are struggling to survive. Many of those businesses are already dead with no possibility to overcome this crisis. It’s great to know that Compumatrix keeps going on and on and that not only it will prevail where others have failed but it will overcome all matters in a great fashion!

  9. This is one of those labels I detest! I can’t explain why but it seem to rub me the wrong way. Another is “The Perfect Storm”. I see these labels as a means to draw out the negative aspects of the situation. My mother was “The Eternal Optimus”. No matter how cloudy it would get, she would look for that silver lining.

    As for our Compumatrix business, the label I have come to know and love is this:
    PARDIGM SHIFT

    1. I, too, like the idea that a paradigm shift encompasses. That phrase seems to flow off the tongue so much easier and doesn’t leave the after taste the expression Black Swan does. Perhaps that’s because none of us (or few, if any) can control a Black Swan Event, and most of us, by nature, do need to feel like we have control over our lives. I have heard all my life that there are silver linings behind every cloud. If that is true, then maybe we have something awesome coming? Being the optimist I am, I believe so!!

  10. Wonderful write up, Gail. Reminding me of how fortunate we are to be on Henry’s team. Regardless of circumstances we will pull through The Covid. Compumatrix has the potential to serve so many in helping them restructure their financial lives.I believe it will, hands down, be one of the greatest businesses to come out of this struggle alive & kicking. I’ve felt this way for a long time, without the current challenges we face, but now…I feel it even more so to be true. The timing of our launch is perfect.

  11. The dark swan hypothesis or hypothesis of dark swan occasions is an analogy that portrays an occasion that comes as surprise, has a significant impact, and is regularly improperly legitimized sometime later with the advantage of knowing the past. The term depends on an antiquated saying that assumed dark swans didn’t exist – a maxim that became reconsidered to train an alternate exercise after dark swans were found in nature.
    The hypothesis was created by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to clarify the unbalanced job of prominent, difficult to-anticipate, and uncommon occasions that are past the domain of ordinary desires ever, science, fund, and innovation. The non-calculability of the likelihood of the noteworthy uncommon occasions is utilizing logical strategies (inferable from the very idea of little probabilities).
    Taleb’s “dark swan hypothesis” alludes just too startling occasions of huge size and result and their prevailing job ever. Such occasions, thought about extraordinary exceptions, on the whole, assume immeasurably bigger jobs than customary events. All the more actually, in the logical monograph “Quiet Risk”, Taleb scientifically characterizes the dark swan issue as “originating from the utilization of ruffian beta probability”.

  12. love the probability of success we have here no matter how dark or what color the circumstance is being depicted — Henry has overcome many many parts of many many obstacles or whatever words you use to define unforeseen Back in my baseball days taking a change-up and still smacking it to the opposite field for a rbi single -or as my Grandma would tell my Mom when things weren’t as expected take what you have and still make a great meal and my Mom Did — I believe we are there with Compumatrix — no matter the virus or economic disaster or loss of integral parts of family and business.

    1. This will be another bump in the road. The world has faced many challenges and most times we recover for the better. The important thing is that we learn from this experience and be better prepared the next time we face something like this. There are going to be businesses that don’t come back we are fortunate that Compumatrix is being lead by a visionary. We will jump off the clif and soar. Thanks Henry.

      1. I agree with Herb, perhaps the silver lining in a Black Swan Event is that it gives us the opportunity to learn and grow. It would be a real shame not to take away some very important lessons from this current Black Swan event. I pray this brings us all closer together as humanity and we learn to appreciate each other FOR our obvious and not so obvious differences.

  13. A black swan event that happend to me were the water floods of 1953 in the south-west of The Netherlands. The floods killed around 1850 people but happily our family survived. I was six years of age and we had to flee the house in the middle of the night because the dykes were about to break, which happened shortly after we reached a safe place. The next day we had to evacuate to a different city where we stayed for several weeks. I have a very vivid memory of this shocking event.

    1. Wow, Joop! What a horrible thing to endure at any age, much less being such a young age. That sounds like a very similar experience my Mom lived through at about the same period in her youth.
      She and her family lived on the Ohio River levee area. She awoke one morning to see her shoes floating by her bed. Needless to say, they had to evacuate ASAP and moved to town. I don’t think as a child, she understood what danger they were in, but as an adult, she would think about that event and cringe.

  14. I have been through some “black swan” events during my life, but thank God I always recover by practicing resilience. This pandemic is being very sad and difficult, but it has also been a great teaching for humanity in many ways. I am happy to know that Compumatrix remains strengthened and in development! I dream of the day that we can enjoy all the benefits that it can provide us.

  15. Wow Gail, this blog was the most exciting one to read yet. We all need to take time to pause and give respect and appreciation for Henry and all of the ones before us that have given their all to get this great company to where it is today. Unfortunately I have been through a few of these Black swan events. While they are never fun to go through, the one overwhelming factor is no matter how much negative crisis someone will endure, God, my God or your God you will only give you what you can handle. Let’s all in this family, team and company hold the line. Because the line seems like we are close to some very new and exciting times…

    1. thank you, Corey! I enjoyed writing it and more so sharing it with you all. I believe in our lives we all have had or will have at least one Black Swan Event. This is the part of life that while not in the least enjoyable does sometimes make us better, stronger, more awake, and aware. Although I must say, I DO hope we don’t see any more of these in my lifetime..lol

  16. For my generation it was easily 9/11. It amazes me that my younger sister and her friends do not remember, or were not even alive for it. That single event has influenced countless lives in so many ways. Coincidentally, the day that the big covid shut downs began, NHL, NBA, etc., I was having a conversation about how my sister’s generation was due for a 9/11 impact event. Obviously I was hopeful that it would not be as traumatic or terrible, and I was hopeful that it was a positive event. A few hours later the world stopped turning and “normal” appears to be a memory.

  17. 9/11 was a horrible permanent bruise on the American spirit. It would do no good right now to blame and point fingers because not one of those poor souls who lost their lives on that day would return because of it. Hopefully, we, as a nation, will grow and learn from that. atrocity. It is my hope too that this current Black Swan Event will teach us all, we need to love each other without limits and support each other without ceasing.

  18. There are so many times in the past where we all have had to deal with the “Black Swan”. Blank Swan events are not only through hurricanes, flooding, 9-11, 2020 pandemic, and other disasters but through everyday life. Losing a son, father, mother, best friends all play into the helpless feeling that turns our world upside down.

    Having witnessed the resilience of Henry over the years, as you pointed out, has helped me be a more patient person. He has taught me the importance of never allowing anything to destroy my dreams. Each time we have to deal with that kind of pain or an overwhelmingly helpless feeling we become stronger than ever.

  19. so wonderful to see the stories of some of the folks around here and see what they have trudged thru and made a great success out of what could have forced them to run and hide — I just know from personal experience that many of the old adages are so true as life has played out — if You don’t Stop and keep pushing forward with Integrity and Honor –no matter what the event is or was I believe You can make it a success individually and like here as a Team — thank you All

  20. Showing my age here, but the Black Swan event I most remember is the Cuban Missile Crisis in the early 1960s. I was in high school in middle Georgia not 3 miles from a huge USAF base. We were within the range of the Soviet missiles based in Cuba and a prime target. The fear in town was palpable. That Sunday, the churches were literally overflowing. We practiced “duck and cover” every day at school. It goes without saying we didn’t think a 3/4″ thick oak desktop would help much against a nuclear blast.

    Within the week the Soviet Union blinked and we were quickly back to normal. However, the important lesson we learned was an atomic war was very possible. That didn’t stop the arms race but, instead, heightened it to a fever pitch. Sometimes mankind is an idiot and never learns from the mistakes. Regardless of the type of Black Swan Event, you can bet, it will happen again.

  21. How excited we are to see the 2.0 version of Compumatrix CDAP open up soon. Henry once again has “weathered the storm.” Pun intended. 🙂 Many of us go through many Black Swan Events in our lives, and a great majority of us find our strength in God to help us through. I am also very thinkfull that Henry has a relationship with Him too, and has something to rely on other than just his gifts and smarts that God gave him.

  22. Gail is a very good blog writer. I think that every human being has events like the Black Swan in his life and he goes through a very difficult situation. Compumatrix is a site that, despite many difficulties, is being run by its founder, Henry James. The world is going through a very difficult time with Code 19 and at the same time Compumatrix continues its journey with its strength which is no less than a breath of fresh air for all of us members in this difficult time.I would like to mention that Gail and Erline are so hard working and ready to help all members any time.

  23. so very true are your observations Zahra of Erline and Gail and there are several others behind the scenes that are supporting and just do not ever stop in the quest for success here at compumatrix — it just amazes me the perseverance and the tenacity displayed by so many here — much thanks so much Gratitude — rj

  24. Now that I know what these events are called, I can see I have lived through Black Swan events before. Some were smaller, and some not so small. I have to say that none have compared to our most recent activity, and that is the Covid19 Black Swan event. By their nature, I don’t think we are ever adequately prepared for them, so we just have to be resilient enough to be able to bounce back and trust God to get us through.

  25. Having lived through all the major events since 1946 several big ones come to mind. Losing half of my High School classmates to Viet Nam and the rest to drugs, near death misses over the years and my worst, 911, can certainly rattle your brain with bad memories. Fortunately I have managed to get to this point in my life and have the physical and mental scars to prove it. Being blessed with near perfect recall has its drawbacks.

    As I have mentioned in several of our blogs, this is our life right now and as Kevin said, “It will be great right out of the box.” My brain opens like a rose when I hear we are almost there and off I go getting my spreadsheets up to date (will track everything daily), then I start looking for any tidbits that will get this show on the road. Most of us are ready to do whatever it takes.

    There will be more Black Swan’s in the future, however we will be in a place to help those who are less fortunate. We are a tight group and I look forward to that big party we talked about a couple of years ago and all the hugs.

  26. I read thru these replies and see the fact that pretty much everyone of us has been thru multiple versions or scenarios that are black swan events are darn close to them and depending on how close to personal the events affect each of us is how difficult that event is to make it thru — I do agree with the thought that there are many strong-willed and tough perse’ people here and following their lead is a very good thing — imho rj

  27. I love these analogies used to compare normal objects and relate them back to Compumatrix. The thing about a Black Swam Event is, no matter how many we have lived through, every single one that occurs will affect people in different ways and still shock the world. There is no way to prepare for these events, because if you are preparing your company for a recession, then the Black Swan Event might be a world wide pandemic. So no one ever knows what these events may entail.

  28. As Gail posted in her article, Black Swan can ruin the economy. we have watched several small businesses and restaurants close because of this covid-19 event. It breaks my heart to see the effect on these lives. I know our company has been impacted to a certain extent by this covid-19 virus, but it has not stopped them. It slowed them down a bit but they continued to implement methods to secure it and make it a strong and reliable company for our future. Together with their digital knowledge and better methods of operating our businesses, may we be able to overcome black swan events in the future.

  29. In a world full of darkness there is always a light somewhere to be found. In this “Black Swan Event” (covid-19), there is still light to be found. Compumatrix is a perfect example, although covid-19 is still drastically affecting Compumatrix and its members; the Compumatrix team does not stop in their pursuit to make the world a better place. In fact, the company is making massive strides as I type – I can sleep easy tonight!

  30. Black Swan events occur for emergence into a new reality. You have a choice to embrace it or fight it. I personally have learned to emotionally allow or emotionally accept all Black Swan events. I know that we are in a ‘reset’ of the old ways into a new prosperous happy life. Even though it feels like we are swimming in a dirty fishbowl, and it has been stirred up, it has to get cleaned out. That is when the Black Swan goes into the light.

  31. as history will be told this virus pandemic will be inclusive in the parts of history that will be in “paradigm shifting” times in world history imho — I see everyday even here in middle Mo — the changes and the struggles and how many small biz peeps are no longer small biz peeps but are part of that shift — this will be a longer lasting episode than most think — but I hope that most of us will work thru and come back and succeed in whatever venture we are working at — ?? time does tell

  32. Thank you for sharing, Katrina was horrible and a set back for many. COVID19 is our set back and we will rise up and become stronger. This company has grown so much just since I’ve been here I’m always in Aww. My divorce felt like a Katrina, having everything taken from you because you make less money wasn’t fun. But that’s been behind me a few years now and I’m ready to move forward with my life and Compumatrix. I’m in court again so I’ll soon be slamming the door on my X forever. As long as the rules are followed and he leaves me alone. Wish me luck.

  33. sorry for the trial and troubles Tracy in hopes and prayers for your success in personal battle — life has many twists and turns as does Business — but as we as a global community battle thru this virus and hopefully sooner than later get a semblance of normalcy back in our lives –it will be welcome — know middle Missouri at least parts are getting closer and closer to back to normalcy — at 60+ and just a Dad it is simpler — hope all are good thru our Compu Family — be blessed in Truth and Hope

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